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This article uses Polity IV data to probe system dynamics for studies of the global diffusion of democracy from 1800 to 2000. By analogy with the Bass model of diffusion of innovations, as translated into system dynamics by Sterman, the dynamic explanation proposed focuses on transitions to democracy, soft power, and communication rates on a global level. The analysis suggests that the transition from democratic experiences ('the soft power of democracy') can be estimated from the systems dynamics simulation of an extended Bass model. Soft power, fueled by the growth in communications worldwide, is today the major force behind the diffusion of democracy. Our findings indicate the applicability of system dynamics simulation tools for the analysis of political change over time in the world system of polities. ; Artikeln använder statsvetenskapliga data för att pröva en spridningsmodell på demokratins spridning i världen 1800-2000. Modellen har tidigare med framgång använts i studier av spridning av tekniska innovationer. Analysen visar hur demokratins "mjuka makt" kan mätas som attraktionskraft på en internationell politisk regimmarknad där auktoritära stater och deras medborgare starkt påverkas att vilja eftersträva mer framgångsrika och demokratiska samhällen. Kommunikationstekniker såsom tidningar, radio, tv och internet ökar möjligheterna för icke-demokratiska staters medborgare att vilja ha demokrati. I denna artikel görs för första gången en kvantitativ, matematiskt baserad simulering av världssystemets demokratisering över lång tid som en konsekvens av kommunikationsteknikernas utveckling. Träffsäkerheten i relation till verkliga data är slående. Modellen visar också att de kommande decennierna kommer att innebära en fortsatt stark spridning av demokrati bland världens idag icke-demokratiska stater. Speciellt för biståndsorganisationer är detta resultat viktigt, eftersom det poängterar kommunikationssystemens avgörande roll för demokratins spridning i världen.

Quantitative analysis of the evolution of innovations at a national systems level is not always possible due to the lack of reliable, comprehensive and adequate data sets. Therefore, managerial practice among organisations as well as policy decision‐making is often myopic and uninformed about actual dynamics. In the Swedish case, there are promising data sets, even if the adequacy of existing variable definitions needs to be explored and debated. Official data collected by the central statistics authority SCB (Statistics Sweden) includes several potentially relevant variables on all private and public organisations in Sweden and their employees. These data are compiled into time series for a number of years, which enables longitudinal analysis. Data can also be merged with other data sets on the environmental goods and services sector and energy consumption data, and therefore allow for a detailed "demographic" or "population ecology" analysis of environmentally oriented or environmentally friendly innovation since at least 2003. In this paper, these databases are described in some detail. In particular, problems of definitions and measurement are discussed, and some initial descriptive statistics are presented. Further, the paper advocates the use of models inspired by population ecology and demography in analysing existing data. In particular, it is suggested that interactive diffusion models may enhance the understanding of the evolution of green innovations and their dynamics. A dynamic understanding of the"greening" of the innovation system is a critical asset in the development of tools to be used for continuous improvements in both policy‐making and the management of innovation in organisations.

Political scientists seldom translate system terminology into systems analysis. This article uses Polity IV data to probe system dynamics for studies of the global diffusion of democracy from 1800 to 2000. By analogy with the Bass model of diffusion of innovations (1969), as translated into system dynamics by Sterman (2000), the dynamic explanation proposed focuses on transitions to democracy, soft power, and communication rates on a global level. The analysis suggests that the transition from democratic experiences ("the soft power of democracy") can be estimated from the systems dynamics simulation of an extended Bass model. Soft power, fueled by the growth in communications worldwide, is today the major force behind the diffusion of democracy. Our findings indicate the applicability of system dynamics simulation tools for the analysis of political change over time in the world system of polities.

Quantitative analysis of "greener" innovation at national systems level is not always possible due to the lack of reliable, comprehensive and adequate data sets. In the Swedish case, there are promising data sets that can be combined, even if one always can debate the adequacy of existing variable definitions. Official data collected by the central statistics authority include several interesting variables on all (!) private and public organizations in Sweden and all (!) employees compiled into time series for a number of years. These can be merged with other data sets on the environmental goods and services sector and energy consumption data in industry and therefore allow for a detailed "demographic" or "population ecology" analysis of environmentally oriented innovation since at least 2003 in industry and the green product sector. In this paper, these databases are described in some detail. Problems of definitions and measurement are particularly discussed. Some initial descriptive statistics are presented. Further, it is suggested to consider some models inspired by demography and population ecology and also include multi-level (in this case national, organizational and individual level) models. In particular it is suggested that diffusion models could be applied, including models in which diffusion processes at organizational level interact with individual level flows of ideas through networks. It is suggested to apply such multi-level regression analysis in order to estimate the power of both organizational and individual level factors in the "greening" of the Swedish innovation system.

Young people's view of nuclear power and democracy since the 1980s: attitude epidemics, path dependencies and technical-political cultural revolution. In the wake of the leftist wave, young people's criticism of the system has diminished, both in terms of criticism of the nuclear-based energy system and of the nature and workings of the political system. Baby-boomers (people born in the 1940s and '50s) in particular have changed their attitude and become less hostile to the establishment. But how did this change in attitudes occur? How has young people's view of technology and democracy changed during the past few decades? Based on data from the SOM Institute gathered between 1987 and 2005, this final report presents the results of one of the two studies conducted in the project "Towards activism or indifference? How Swedish young people view democracy and the environment, science and technology in an international and longitudinal perspective". First a theory and a method are proposed for analyzing what is called in this report "attitude epidemics", referring to the fact that attitudes spread like wildfire or epidemics, leading to what societal researchers call "path dependencies". Then age-versus-generation differences are studied, as well as a large number of other factors, with regard to attitudes to technology, nuclear power and democracy in particular, or the way democracy works in Sweden. Younger people are found to be the most critical of nuclear power, while they are most satisfied with democracy, even though gender, risk perceptions, party affiliation and political positioning are some of the factors that also influence these analyses on the individual level. The "epidemic effect" and path dependencies do not show their strength in these individual analyses, but all the more in the analysis of time series where the computer and IT revolution is found to be very strongly linked to the strong growth in acceptance of nuclear power. Using new communication technologies is somehow associated with a decline in hostility toward technology and nuclear power. But many cause-and-effect relationships in this attitudinal and technical-political "cultural revolution" still remain to be explored. ; I vänstervågens svall har ungdomens systemkritik avklingat, både i bemärkelsen kritik mot det kärnkraftsbaserade energisystemet och mot det politiska systemets väsen och funktionssätt. Främst 1940- och 1950-talisterna har ändrat inställning och blivit mindre systemfientliga. Men hur gick denna förändring i attityder egentligen till? Hur har synen på teknik och demokrati bland ungdomar förändrats senaste årtiondena? Med användning av SOM-institutets data 1987–2005 presenterar denna slutrapport resultat från en av de två delstudierna inom projektet "Mot aktivism eller ointresse? Svenska ungdomars syn på demokrati och teknologi i ett internationellt och longitudinellt perspektiv". Först föreslås teori och metod för att analysera det som i denna rapport kallas "attitydepidemier", att attityder sprider sig lavinartat, och genom dem etablering av vad samhällsforskare kallar "stigberoenden". Därefter studeras ålders- kontra generationsskillnader, liksom ett stort antal andra faktorer, med avseende på attityder till framför allt tekniken kärnkraft och demokrati eller demokratins funktionssätt i Sverige. Yngre visar sig vara de mest kritiska mot kärnkraften men de mest nöjda med demokratin, även om kön, riskuppfattningar, partianhängarskap och politisk positionering är några av de faktorer som också spelar roll i dessa analyser på individnivå. "Epidemieffekten" och stigberoenden visar inte sin styrka i dessa individanalyser, men desto mer i analysen av tidsserier där dator- och IT-revolutionen visar sig mycket starkt förbunden med den starka tillväxten i kärnkraftsacceptans. Att använda nya kommunikationstekniker hänger på något sätt samman med minskning av teknikfientlighet även till kärnkraften. Men många orsakssamband i denna attitydmässiga och teknisk-politiska "kulturrevolution" är fortfarande outforskade. ; "Mot aktivism eller ointresse? Svenska ungdomars syn på demokrati och teknologi i ett internationellt och longitudinellt perspektiv"

This article presents a way of dealing scientifically with the problem of comparison among dynamically evolving units of analysis in social science, namely by using methods from theoretical, computational & mathematical biology & phylogeny (evolutionary tree) analysis. First, the standard political science & static method of comparative analysis is criticized. Second, some important aspects of the dynamic comparison are presented from its multidisciplinary & historic context, commenting on the compatibility with evolutionary institutional as well as universal Darwinian theoretical perspectives. Third, dynamic comparison is approached using first techniques from standard social science statistical software (SPSS) & then from molecular genetics (MEGA, Molecular Evolutionary Analysis). Examples of evolutionary tree analyses of the European nations are presented & discussed. Similarities & dissimilarities between social science & biological applications of the dynamic comparison techniques are discussed, emphasizing the importance of openness to new techniques & application of panel data for elaboration of new methods of dynamic comparative analyses in social sciences. 2 Tables, 9 Figures, 68 References. Adapted from the source document.

Institutions of modern societies have often been argued to evolve, but their evolution is rarely examined in Darwinian and empirical terms. Here we use the categorical data set MaxRange on nations' regime-types and their constituting institutions historically for analysis of their phylogeny. The MaxRange data set covers all nations in the world system of nations since 1600 with details on accountability structures, executive strength and degree of centralization, constitutional strength, democracy and other aspects of the political systems. We describe and analyze the character of the "true phylogeny" of regime-type evolution in the nations of the world 1600--2020. Our results indicate that evolutionary network rather evolutionary tree models have superior fit to data. Using the extracted phylogeny, we also investigate the dynamic networks of nations in terms of regime-types, accountability structures and their related background factors such as religions and language. Network centrality measures of nations and regime-types provide new important explanatory variables for network-adjusted survival analyses of various institutions, from types and levels of democracy to details of regime-types, including institutions like parliamentarism, presidentialism, and their hybrid forms.

A new data set provides vital information about the world's political institutions, from 1789 on a monthly and yearly basis and from 1600 on a yearly basis. The yearly data set from 1600 has more than 90,000 country–year observations, and the monthly data set from 1789 more than 600,000 observations—by far the most comprehensive to date, offering several advantages over other available ones. The data set aggregates specific attributes to create nominal and ordinal rankings of political regimes on a scale of 1 to 1,000. In addition to supporting a rigorous classification of democratic and nondemocratic regimes, it allows researchers to trace institutional variations and to explore alternative ways of aggregating political institutions. As a research instrument, the MaxRange data set permits historically minded scholars to address a number of issues related to the dynamics of political institutions in an unprecedented manner. © 2017 by the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and The Journal of Interdisciplinary History, Inc. ; MaxRange

This paper therefore looks closer into climate gas emission and the shift to non-fossil energy in Sweden. What types of organizations are behind the shift to non-fossil energy use, what are the relative effects on emissions, to what extent can these interactive dynamics be considered eco-innovations? Do these effects vary between public and private organizations, and if so, can they be related to specific institutions and policies? Methods include statistical survival analyses, in particular Cox regression. These analyses inform us why energy sources shift. Results indicate that wood fuel and solid waste increase as sources of energy while fossil oil has decreased between 2003 and 2010. This result is in line with industrial and environmental policies of the Swedish governments that present these facts as institutionally and policy-related 'green innovation'. However, our analysis contests such a conclusion and it is noticed that the shift to non-fossil sources of energy has not led to verifiable decreases in green-house gas emissions. Results instead suggest that 'green' innovation of non-fossil energy was mostly the effect of low-tech innovation in public organizations with no fundamental effect on CO2 emissions. © Springer International Publishing AG, Part of Springer Science+Business Media 2015 ; "Miljöinnovationer i det svenska innovationssystemet"

In what sequences have nations changed institutionally in history and does that order matter for later democratization? If so, are there historical-institutional pathways of "civilizations"? These previously neglected research problems are addressed in this paper on the basis of a new, unique, and enormous data set tracking all political institutions and systems in the world monthly since 1789. The aim is both empirical and theoretical: to take steps toward an understanding of the sequential aspects of political-institutional evolution. Results visualize sequences at regime level that show few signs of path dependency. They also show that democracy may emerge in all types of regimes, though at varying paces. Separating religious-majority nations, Muslim systems are less affected by democracy diffusion than other religious-majority nations. Muslim political systems also exhibit larger regime type unpredictability. Taken together with estimates of GDP per capita, majority religions explain a minor share of discrepancies between regime types: wealth of nations is more important than majority religion on a general, regime type diversity level. However, specifications of institutional details will have to be made in future research in this new area of historical political-institutional study.